![]() Three major factors are driving this transition: decreasing fertility, increasing longevity, and the aging of large population cohorts.įalling fertility rates are the main determinant of population aging. The global number of centenarians worldwide–those aged one hundred years and older–is expected to more than double by 2030, with projections of nearly 3.4 million by 2050. By 2050, the percentage of the United States’ population that is aged sixty years and older will grow from the current figure of about 20 percent to 27 percent. The world’s population is aging rapidly, and older adults compose a larger proportion of the world’s population than ever before–a share that will only increase over the next century. We are in the midst of an unprecedented transition in global demography. Her research interests include economics, women's health and reproductive health, and population studies. ![]() His many publications include recent articles in such journals as Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Applied Statistics, and Journal of International Development.ĪLYSSA LUBET is a Research Assistant in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. His many publications include recent articles in such journals as JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association, Finance & Development, and Science.ĭAVID CANNING is the Richard Saltonstall Professor of Population Sciences and Professor of Economics and International Health in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. BLOOM, a Fellow of the American Academy since 2005, is the Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. ![]() Finally, the third section of the essay describes various responses to these challenges, both current and prospective, facing individuals, businesses, institutions, and governments.ĭAVID E. The second section outlines some of the major challenges associated with widespread population aging. The first section of this essay provides a statistical overview of global population aging and its contributing factors. The challenges come from the fact that our current institutional and social arrangements are unsuited for aging populations and shifting demographics our proposed solution is therefore to change our institutions and social arrangements. We view longer life spans, particularly longer healthy life spans, as an enormous gain for human welfare. The rapid aging of populations around the world presents an unprecedented set of challenges: shifting disease burden, increased expenditure on health and long-term care, labor-force shortages, dissaving, and potential problems with old-age income security.
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